Get Ready For It...More Rain...UGH!

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I think we past the point of ridiculousness a LONG time ago. I, for one, am completely sick and tired of rain. We are stuck in a pattern that just doesn't want to let go. It will eventually, it's just a very slow process. Last week's rain event pushed us over the top. We are now living in the wettest year on record (eastern NJ that is) with Western NJ and PHL following very closely behind. It's late December and we are looking at yet ANOTHER big wet weather maker. When will it stop?

For you to understand WHY this is happening, we need to look at how the pattern is setup. It STINKS for snow lovers. In the current pattern we get a lot of "cutter" type storms. This means the track brings the low pressure centers well to our WEST. Not where you want them to be if you're hoping and waiting for snow. Anytime we are on the EAST side of a storm, there's never a good outcome. The cutter phrase refers to storms literally cutting through the interior. Warm air grips the entire east coast in this scenario. 


The pattern we are desperately looking to develop is something like this:

Cold air moves in and storms are able to track off-shore putting us in a much more favorable position for snow. This pattern WILL develop as we head into January, finally. It's been a rocky road getting there though. Nothing unforeseen, but annoying nonetheless. I know there are many out there that are running with the whole "Cancel Winter" idea. I think that's nonsense. We were SUPPOSED to warm up in Mid December. The years I am basing my winter forecast off of, all warmed up in December and then got cold in January and February. I don't see any reason to back down from that idea now. Make a forecast and stick with it until you see beyond the shadow of a doubt it's not going to work out. That's how I've always gone about my job. 

We will get back to where I think things go and WHY in a second, but let's focus on the storm that is out in front of us for tomorrow. Obviously today is NICE. Partly to mostly sunny skies, no issues. Clouds will slowly roll in late day and into the evening. Showers arrive by early tomorrow morning. Here's a look at what radar could look like as you wake up and head out the door:

and at lunchtime...

and by dinner...

There will be some wind associated with this storm, but not projected to be as bad as the last one. Some gusts to over 35mph possible:


Luckily with the moon in between phases I'm not concerned about any tidal flooding. Tides will remain below minor flood stage: 

Before all is said and done, we are probably looking at around 1/2" to 1" of rain, of course, there could be areas that over perform with heavier cells mixed in, and I can't completely rule out a thunderstorm. 

There is a lot of focus on what's going on with the NYE storm. A couple days ago it looked like we could get some sneaky snow, now it looks like MAYBE a wintry mix at best but probably more likely rain. I want to see how models handle it this afternoon before making a verdict. The setup isn't prime for snow, that's for sure.

Now back to what's going on globally that "should" give us hints about the upcoming pattern reversal. First it's important to look at sea surface temps as they have A LOT to do with the weather around the world. Now, obviously they aren't the ONLY factor, there are MANY... that's why meteorology is so much fun (and challenging). Overall I like the look. The eastern pacific is cooler than the central pacific meaning confidence in the "madoki" El Nino is up a couple notches. The only thing I don't really like is the cooler water showing up in the Gulf of Alaska. A lot of credit is given to the "warm blob", though so far I've been unimpressed by its impact (if any). We can't judge based off a 7-day change though, let's wait and see where we are in a couple weeks. 

Upper air wise - our current pattern looks like this...which is HORRIBLE: 

We get to THIS... much better:

See the blues south of Alaska? That's exactly what I want to see form. A trough there means a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. That just simply equates to colder and more active weather in the east. We NEED something like this to set up for our Winter forecast to verify. I still believe January and February will throw us some decent storms. Like I said above, no reason to back off. Of course I bite my nails as the days pass without snow, but as you're very well aware, things can change with a moments notice. Just a reminder, I'm going 1-2 degrees below average (as a whole) for the Winter season and 35-50% more snow than average. We've got 5" logged, we need another 15-20" for that forecast to come to fruition. My forecast isn't as cold and snowy as others, I consider myself "down the middle". Time will tell. I think best chance of snow enters the frame during the second week of Jan. Stay tuned!