Big Storm with Flooding, Then Lackluster End to DecemberLast Edited:
Alright...raise your hand...Are you sick and tired of the rain and grey weather? Me too. Okay, put your hand down because you look ridiculous. People are looking at you! You don't have to be an astute weather professional to know it has rained A LOT over the fall, and we are continuing that into "Meteorological Winter". Crazy, eye-popping numbers that highlight how much above average we really are. Take a look at this board:
That's right, we've seen 27.51" of rain since September. That's over 15" above normal for the time frame. The ground is soaked, Groundwater levels are at the brink and there's no room for more. That is why basements are getting flooded and drainage issues are being seen throughout the state. We've officially earned the #1 spot as the wettest Fall on record and we are quickly closing in on grabbing the title for wettest year, period. We are a little over 1" away from obtaining that "goal". We will do so by Friday when another 1-2" of rain moves in. 1948 is the current record holder for wettest year at 65.8". By the time this month is over we will be looking at probably 66.5"... insane.
On a related note, I posted about this a little over a month ago showing you a positive correlation between wet Falls and white Winters... here's a look at that chart again. Many of the years that turned out very white, were also El Nino years. 2009 was an incredibly wet year, that very next Winter? Record setting snow. 58". I'm not saying we are going to see 58" this year, but it's certainly possible as there IS historical precedent for such a thing to occur. Take a look at this chart... certainly encouraging for snow-lovers.
Ok, enough of that. Let's focus on where we go over the next week or so. Yes, you've heard! Another big rain and wind maker comes our way late Thursday and will begin to depart late Friday. A good 18-22 hours of rain? Oy. That's the last thing we need right now. The dynamics behind it? It's another southern storm. Take what we saw this past weekend, copy and paste.
We've got the rain to our south on Thursday afternoon:
Then it begins moving in and picking up in intensity overnight into Friday morning:
Note how those black lines are close together? Those are isobars and the closer they are packed together, the windier it gets. Here's an idea of what the gusts will likely look like. 45-55mph at the coast... 40+ on the mainland? This presents a few different issues.
-Power outages possible. Why? As I mentioned above, groundwater levels are very high, add in another 1-2" plus heavy wind? Trees could come down onto power lines.
-Coastal Flooding. We've gotten a break from it, thankfully, but this is yet another storm that will arrive at a BAD TIME. Friday marks a full moon. Tides are astronomically higher. Add in the persistent on-shore flow and there will probably be areas of moderate flooding. 2' of water in the streets in spots certainly can't be ruled out. As always, it's best to prepare for the worst and hope for minor impact. Tide heights will generally be about 5'. Put 1-1.5' of storm surge (perfectly feasible) on top of the tide, and we quickly find ourselves in minor flood stage. Add in the 1-2" of rain water? The situation gets exacerbated.
Here's a look at tide forecasts for Cape May:
and Atlantic City:
Not trying to scare anything, just throwing out the facts. Stay alert and of course, stay tuned to the changing forecast as we go into the next 36-48 hours!
Aside from this storm December will wrap up pretty much lackluster as I pointed out in the headline. December is a transition month. Real Winter doesn't kick in until January this year. Funny, I was reading an article this morning about Climate Scientists now predicting a cold winter. Interesting. We've been talking about a cold winter since AUGUST. Climate change? No. An easily identifiable pattern that promotes cold and snow that we picked up long before they did. Also, we are forecasting ahead based on what has happened in the PAST under the SAME conditions....But I digress. Jan and Feb will be fun for us snow lovers, I believe :)