While there are still some unanswered questions on the table, it's pretty much safe to assume we should be prepping for at least SOME impact from a coastal storm that will begin developing later on in the week. There are a few factors that need to be looked at...
1. This won't be a tropical entity, BUT part is leftover energy from major Hurricane Willa that is making landfall in Mexico today. It will fall apart rapidly as the mountainous terrain helps with disruption. The remnants will head towards Texas as soon as tomorrow afternoon.
2. Tropical Depression Vicente - not that big of a deal but a piece of it could be engulfed by Willa.
3. Weak low in the Gulf, off-shore of Texas. This will move to the east impacting the southeast with rain and breezy conditions, it will begin to join together with the remnants of Willa.
4. Energy from the northwest - this is currently traveling across the Pacific ocean. One of the options we are looking at is this coming through the plains and towards the coast at the same time as the coastal low coming up along the shore line. IT could potentially phase together and bring about an enhanced storm.
5. Strong high pressure (blocking) over eastern Canada. This will lead to some strong winds via a pressure gradient. Even if the coastal low isn't very strong, the pressure difference can create winds to over 35-40mph.
So, as you can see this isn't a cut and dry situation. Like most storm forecasts there are pieces of the puzzle we need to see come together.
In terms of direct impact to us there are essentially two different potential tracks, each with its own set of impacts for South Jersey:
1. Closer to the coast - heavy rain probably 1-2"+, Wind gusts over 50mph at the coast and moderate tidal flooding.
2. Off-shore - Periods of rain, heaviest at the coast 1"+, Wind gusts over 40mph and minor tidal flooding.
Living at the coast obviously our number one concern IS tidal flooding. We will only be 2 days removed from the full moon which means our tides will be running astronomically high. Add in a 18-24 hour on-shore flow and that adds yet another foot or so of extra water on top of it. Some areas could very well see moderate tidal flooding, especially throughout Cape May county.
Long duration. Rain looks to start by Friday night and potentially last through early Sunday morning.