Hurricane Michael Update # 4: Impact to South Jersey

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I feel like it's been 2 weeks talking about Michael but it's only been a few days! Hard to believe. Michael went from a weak tropical disturbance to a depression to a Hurricane within 36 hours. One of the faster intensifying storms. There have been many others in the past, so this is nothing new. Impressive nonetheless though.
 
Michael slammed into Panama City around 2pm this afternoon 1mph shy of a Category 5 Hurricane. Crazy intense. Winds at 155mph, 14' storm surge... massive areas of destruction. Such a sad situation for the folks down there. Some of the islands will likely be re-shaped due to the magnitude of the storm.
 
After Michael dumps close to a foot of rain in the Southeast, it eyes up our region next. I've stated this multiple times this week: Michael will NOT have a major impact to our region, but still moderate impact is will very likely with heavy rain and wind.
 
Timing:
 
Cold front arrives tomorrow morning, showers break out ahead of it and get amplified by the moisture from Michael. Periods of heavy rain likely develop by the afternoon. The heaviest comes in tomorrow night.
 
Winds:
 
Sustained winds will be 15-25mph during the day, back off a little and then pick up again late Thursday night to 20-30mph, especially at the coast. Gusts could exceed 50mph if Michael tracks just right. The worst winds will be out of the NORTHWEST.
 
Rain:
 
I think a widespread 2-4" likely, highest numbers will be at the coast, less north and west. There could be areas that could get OVER 4", again, depending on the track of the storm. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for the entire area. Keep in mind we are 5"+ above normal. This certainly won't help. That was needs to go SOMEWHERE.
 
Flooding:
 
More concerned about FLASH FLOODING than Tidal, but minor tidal flooding IS possible through the low laying areas along the coast. With the storm moving so rapidly to the northeast, there won't be time for "stacking" of the back bays to be an issue. Still be on the lookout in the culprit areas.
 
Travel will be at its worst late Thursday night.
 
Please feel free to ask any questions you may have!