Strong Thunderstorms In the Near Future?Last Edited:
Good Morning! I'm sure you've heard it by now - PREPARE FOR THE APOCALYPSE, Right? Ok... slow your roll. Let's talk about all the facts and get you through the day and prepared for what will likely come this evening. It's not my style to scare the Beejeezus out of people so I think informing and having everyone on the same page is much more beneficial, that way you can plan accordingly.
Here's what's going on. We've got a warm front sliding from SW to NE. We saw a round of showers ahead of it this morning. Typically when that happens in the morning, the atmosphere becomes a bit more stable and storms later on aren't as bad. The problem with that today? That rain came through VERY early and we will likely see a good deal of sun this afternoon. Sun = bad if you don't want storms. So that front continues to push northeast through the day. Best chance of storms in the early to mid afternoon is out over PA.
We've got a weak disturbance that will propagate along the front by late afternoon and that's what will spark, or be the catalyst fore the development of storms. The later we go into the day, the better the chance of seeing storms becomes.
Storm Prediction Center Outlook:
This doesn't happen all too often. We frequently see "Slight Risk" assigned to our region, but "enhanced" is far less common. The area highlighted in orange basically tells us this is where the strongest storms are likely to develop and move through. Just because your town is included in the orange does NOT mean you WILL absolutely see a storm. Doesn't work like that. Forecasting storms is fickle because we can give you a general idea of where and when they will develop but the specifics aren't hashed out until just before the event. If you live in South Jersey, it's best to prepare for a strong storm. Bottom line. You don't need to build an ark or anything extreme, but be vigilant.
Biggest concern is straight line wind damage. Look for the formation of line segments and bow-echoes later on in the afternoon. Hail is also up there at a moderate risk. We've seen hail produced on Thursday night and early this morning. The conditions are favorable for its formation within the cells. Tornado risk is lower, but I can not rule out one or two spin-ups later on, especially with singular, slow moving cells.
We watch our skies clear this morning, plenty of sunshine will be seen.
Dew points and temps soar, which will add fuel to the "fire" this afternoon. We should be dry through about 5pm
It's 5pm-10pm that I'm concerned about. Look for storms to develop just west of Philly around 5 and get into South Jersey between 6-8pm.