First Call Snow Forecast | Some Impact Likely, No Blockbuster EventLast Edited:
What You Need to Know:
- Light to moderate event likely by Monday
- Showers could break out just after dinner and will end by early morning Tuesday.
- Since the bulk of this falls overnight, I think stickage will be an issue.
- Higher end minor / lower end moderate tidal flooding expected at the shore on Tuesday.
- Gusts could exceed 40mph at the coast, less on the mainland
- Timing is dinner Monday to breakfast Tuesday
- Confidence Level is low to moderate, a change by tomorrow AM is possible regarding snow totals
I swear this winter has been chuck full of storms that are difficult to forecast. Not complaining - just venting... there's a difference! Definitely not your cut and dry "Miller A" type storms that you can see coming a million miles away. The storms that are a pain to forecast are the ones that rely on multiple pieces of energy to come together. When and where the coastal feature develops etc. It's a painstaking task going over each and every model and figuring out where their strengths and weaknesses come into play.
After talking to myself (and sometimes answering ??), here's what we've got to look forward to. Now, mind you, this is a FIRST CALL map based on all the data I've looked at. I think this scenario makes sense. From the get-go I explained I don't foresee a major storm, but it will likely bring some travel issues our way by Tuesday morning. Generally 1-3" for a lot of the area. I think 1-3" likely even through Ocean county BUT we've outlined an area that is MOST LIKELY to see a little bit of enhancement and for that reason could end up with areas of 2-4".
With this storm I'm thinking the closer to the coast you go, the more snow you'll see. Kinda like a throwback to the beginning of Winter. Can this change by tomorrow morning? No doubt. A shift west or east would change these numbers around. I just wanted to get something out there to give you an idea of what we could be looking at as you're traveling around late Monday and heading out to work and school on Tuesday morning.
Winds will start off out of the NE by Monday afternoon but will quickly shift NW overnight. Not as strong as the past two storms but gusts over 40mph can't be ruled out.
The 850mb temps (5k feet up) look to easily sustain a snowy solution. Perhaps a little rain at the onset but I don't think it would be long lasting if that played out. We will have the freezing line well off-shore. Since it's falling at night there will be no sun angle to contend with, which means it will easily accumulate on roadways making Tuesday morning unpleasant to travel.
WHAT ABOUT THE EURO??? That's the ONE concern I have with this forecast. I'm actively rooting AGAINST snow, and WANT the Euro to win out. I just don't really buy what it's selling in terms of upper air support. The connection is missed. If that did play out then we'd see a near total miss with some snow flurries possible. The unknown at this point: Will it correct back west? I like the positioning of the low, but think the precip shield will extend farther west.
It's important to note that the SHORT RANGE guidance is on board with a couple inches of snow, the Global models are leaning east. The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle. From a tidal flooding standpoint, I think it's important to note that while we will not see a direct impact, there WILL be a very powerful storm churning out in the Atlantic which will throw back some water our way. Stay tuned!