Nor'easter Incoming: Part 2 in our Winter Trilogy

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Sick and tired of it yet? Look, I’m one of the biggest Winter weather lovers out there but even I AM TIRED OF IT! I’m dreaming of 60s and sunshine as the longer days approach, aren’t you? Unfortunately, I know that’s just not going to happen in this pattern. We set the stage for you several weeks ago, this weather is here to stay for awhile before it gradually breaks for Spring-like conditions.

Alright so we’ve got ANOTHER storm lined up for Mid-Week. As if no one every learns from the past, and in this case, the very RECENT past, the hype has already set in one way or another. It’s disheartening to someone who waits to get as much info as possible before making a level headed assessment of what will likely play out – forecasting has become very dramatic, and there’s no need for it… but I digress. Here’s what you need to know:

SUMMARY:

  • A moderately strengthed coastal storm will develop by Wednesday bringing rain, wind and even some snow to portions of the region.
  • It is NOT as large or as strong as last week’s storm, but it will still bring a moderate impact to the region.
  • TRACK will ultimately determine what everyone sees in terms of precipitation type.
  • I’m liking the idea that it’s mainly rain at the coast with a flip to heavy wet snow at the end. Accumulations will be determined by just how much upward motion is present within the storm.
  • Areas west of Hammonton have the best chance of seeing over 3” of snow.
  • Winds will roar out of the northeast at 25-30 sustained with gusts over 45mph. Strong, but not AS bad as the gusts with the previous storm.
  • No matter the precip, it will be heavy and wind-driven. NOT FUN!
  • MINOR tidal flooding possible with on-shore flow but at least tide levels won’t be as high without the full moon.

TIMING:

Look for precipitation to move in late Tuesday night / early Wednesday morning. Whatever you want to call it – after midnight. It will likely begin as a mix, perhaps snow but IF it’s falling heavy enough, it will make the transition over to snow for some by early afternoon? Your best chance of this happening is well west of the parkway, though I am holding out hope for some snow for the coast as well. Snow continues through Wednesday evening and then wraps up late in the evening, drying out for Thursday

WINDS:

This time around they will be out of the northeast. The low looks to track CLOSER to the coast which means the stronger winds wrapped around the center will be closer to the coast as well. As stated above in the summary, I expect gusts to over 45mph again. While this isn’t AS strong as the last storm, keep in mind it’s much closer so you’ve got to factor that in. Now, the strongest winds last for about 8 hours out of the Northeast before shifting as the storm pulls away.

SNOW:

If the closer to the coast option verifies, it would mean less snow from Hammonton points east towards the shore. A more traditional “I-95” type nor’easter. Maybe an inch or so at the end? Things get tricky for western Atlantic points west because the wild card is mesoscale banding. There could be areas that end up with several inches of wet snow. I continue to believe we will finalize those details by tonight or tomorrow morning. This will not be an all snow event for everyone. Just can’t do it.

RAIN:

Probably about 1-1.5” of rain before the storm exists / flips over to snow. Rain amounts will increase the more east of Hammonton you travel.

FLOODING:

Tide levels come down, that’s good. Full moon is gone, also good. Strong on-shore flow is bad, increased wave action is bad, but I think it all comes out in the wash. Look for beach erosion, but not too concerned about flooding. Maybe minor? I’ll work on that through the day.

WHAT CAN GO “WRONG”:

Track…Track….Track. It’s all about track of the low. Right now it is a difference of maybe 30 miles. That’s all. That’s very small. Let’s say it takes the track I think it will right now, it means heavy snow over I-95 with lesser amounts south and east. Let’s bring the low 30 miles east and all of a sudden that heavy snow makes it into Central South Jersey. BIG bust potential with this one. Also amount of lift on the backside of the storm will determine a lot too.