BARNEY IS COMING TO A TOWN NEAR YOU, GRAB THE HEAVY COATS!

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OH MY GOSH, IT'S THE POLAR VORTEX! RUN... GRAB THE MILK AND EGGS...

Ok, OBVIOUSLY I'm being over the top but I'm sure that is the reaction of a lot of people on the down low regarding the impending blast of COLD coming our way. I think I've made it abundantly clear that I'm a fan of the colder weather. I love when things are at least seasonable. We've been very warm recently, with October topping out as one of the top 10 warmest in NJ history, but that's going to change. 

My thoughts for November early on where that this month would probably end up slightly below average. I stick by those thoughts. Our first Arctic intrusion is coming soon. It will be here by Friday. So, how cold will it get exactly? I could be kind and just tell you, but what's the fun in that? Let's go over a few things and I'll explain the why behind the what. Part of my job is educating you guys. I love doing it, it ultimately makes my job easier at the end of the day anyway!

850 MB TEMPERATURES 

Alright first and foremost, some of you are probably scratching your heads saying "Wait, what's this have to do with Barney?" I get it. Kinda out there in left field but here me out... When the weather turns COLD the colors on the map change. They are usually shades of pink and purple... I made the reference to Barney years ago and stuck with it. So that's Where I'm coming from.

What are you looking at? This is a model projection of what the temperatures and wind pattern will look like at the 850mb layer of the atmosphere. Where's that? Look up and it's about 5k feet above your head. Roughly a mile straight up in the sky. The temperatures in that layer of the atmosphere are very important. It lets us know what we can expect down here at the surface, where we live. 

SURFACE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING

If you have any fragile plants that you don't want dead, I would advise that you bring them in. I expect a widespread deep freeze as overnight lows on Friday night plunge into the lower 20s for some. We could even flirt with freezing at the coast! The coming freeze is GOOD NEWS for allergy sufferers and those who don't like the pesky bugs. This will put a dent in both. 

High temperatures on Friday and Saturday won't get out of the low to mid 40s. Chilly stuff! Make sure you've got a heavy coat in the wardrobe plan.

What's this mean for the long term? Not a whole lot. Just because it's going to be cold briefly has no bearing on how an entire season will play out. There are some positive signs that colder weather will be with us a lot more this Winter than last, but don't take what's coming as a sign that it will be a brutal Winter. I'll be issuing my official Winter forecast this Friday!

NEGATIVE NAO

To predict what's going on long term, we must look at certain atmospheric oscillations that have a direct impact on the weather here at home. One of the most important ingredients to look at is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Referred to as the "Greenland Block" when it's in its negative phase, high pressure builds over Greenland and forces troughs (dips in the jet stream) to move into the eastern portion of the US. Judging by the EUROPEAN model, the NAO is forecast to tank towards Thanksgiving. If this is true, we will see much different weather than last year (colder).

Here's a look at what a negative NAO does to our temperatures in November. See how cold things get?

NEUTRAL PNA

Another important pattern to look at is the Pacific North America Pattern. When it goes into its positive phase, it promotes colder air in the east. When it's NEUTRAL you can get progressive patterns with cool air. PNA isn't forecast to do anything crazy in the coming couple weeks:

And this is what the temperatures anomaly looks like when the PNA is in this state:

Not as cold as a negative NAO but we'll take it.

Bottom line? We are in for some interesting weather this month. There will be spurts of warmth, but they will be short lived. LOTS going on, I promise it will be worth watching! The northeast's first snowstorm could be in the cards as soon as the 20th... definitely worth watching the pattern :)