(Insert Sensational Title Here) Storm Coming For Weekend!

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Top o' the mornin' to ya my friends! It's ok - you can't admit it... you're excited for the weekend, huh? Looking out the window you see nothing much beautiful bright blue skies and lots of sunshine. It's going to carry right through the weekend, right?! Well... hold up just one second. I WISH it did, but it won't. Conditions will start going down hill by tomorrow late day as clouds filter in. Wow. Way to be a Debbie downer, I know I know. Sorry about that. 

The fact is we've been talking about a storm coming our way for a little over a week. We KNEW there would be a cold front and I was pretty confident that we'd get SOME type of development from the tropics to lend a hand into ruining a portion of our weekend, but it's ok. We will get through it. I promise. What's coming our way is by no means any surprise. It's not an act of magic and certainly not unprecedented. We are entering the time of the year where things become more active. We've got a dynamic weather pattern and we are in a phase that is conducive for development in the tropics. This stuff all comes together. While still highly unpredictable, we can easily pick up on patterns in our weather. 

I've been reading the headlines from some other outlets and all I can say is wow. I won't name names, that's not professional, but I'll say that I'm bewildered. Some are comparing it to "The perfect storm". Not the case. I guess anything negative sells these days, right? I'm here to give you the facts as always. I have no agenda. I don't skew my forecasts to suit what kind of weather I want to see yadda yadda yadda. Tired of the nonsense! Let's move on and talk specifics, shall we?

MODEL TAKE ON THE SITUATION 

There's been a good deal of consensus over the past several days believe it or not. That consensus though isn't a widespread across the board agreement on what ALL models think will happen though, it's more limited. What the heck does that mean exactly? The agreement is model specific. The EURO has been consistent with its runs, the GFS consistent with its runs and so on and so forth. There are still questions that need to be answered... but like I always tell you, models are TOOLS. We need to look at other things to forecast. EURO has been consistently closer to the coast and stronger while GFS is farther east and weaker. Which will win out? The truth is somewhere in the middle I believe. 

GFS SOLUTION 

Two lows to one low to two lows... back and forth. Seesaw modeling! The GFS has been toying over the idea of splitting the energy from the system coming out of the Caribbean for a few days now. It wants to bring a piece out to sea but most of the energy up the coast into a larger primary low. Perfectly feasible. 

Here's what that scenario would look like close up and personal. Notice where the heavy rain is? Off shore. We'd still probably get nearly 1" of rain, but nowhere near the amount shown on other models - specifically the EURO.

Forecast taken from the GFS verbatim: Cloudy, windy at times, gusts to over 35mph with periods of rain, some heavy at times. A widespread 3/4-1" of rain. Stronger winds on the back end by early Monday morning and windy through the day.

EURO 

It's no government secret that most of us in this field hold the EURO model on a pedestal. It's very accurate. It has been extremely consistent with the idea of a stronger primary low riding parallel to the coast. Can't deny that one bit. Yesterday it had a 978mb low to our north over New York, today it has a 980 something low off shore by Sunday night (that would get into the 970s by Monday over New England). So much stronger, much farther west. Very impressive. 

Here's what the WINDS would look like at the 5,000 foot layer of the atmosphere. Some of that would mix down to the surface. Believe it or not, hurricane force winds possible. NOT FOR US... but someone northeast of us, especially out over the open water. 

I still believe the strongest winds from this will be on Monday as the storm pulls away but that's not to say gusts 40+ won't be seen at the coast on Sunday evening.

EURO rainfall... it's backed down from yesterday, but still impressive. 2-4" through NJ? I'm leaning closer to the 2" with this model. I think it's overdoing for some of the region. Take into consideration this thing will be moving fast. Inevitably a "dry slot" will appear at the storm intensifies. Bust alert!!

My Personal Thoughts: 

Any way you slice it, Sunday won't be nice. Cloudy, dull, windy, rainy. Fact. I think we wake up to showers and watch the intensity increase through the afternoon. Worst of the weather would be centered from about 2pm to midnight. Worst winds Sunday night and then Monday. Flooding? Not too concerned there. Highest winds occur during low tide and storm is rapidly moving. I said yesterday intensity on a scale 1-10 would be a 6 for our region. No reason to ride a horse through town yelling "The Storm is Coming, The Storm is Coming!". 

My ONE concern? Let's suppose we DO get lots of heavy rain.... the winds will then make it more possible to topple trees due to wet ground. That's a real threat that we will have to watch over the next day or so. 

Stay dry... and if you have any outdoors plans for Sunday, change them.