Eyes Begin to Focus on Tropics: Potential For "Gert"?

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Yes... there is a tropical feature that could very well become "Gert" out in the heart of the Atlantic and yes... it will probably become well organized as some point over the course of the next 4-5 days. But no, I don't expect any direct impact for us here in South Jersey. It's still worth watching very closely because things can change in relation to troughs and ridges that can pull it closer to the mainland but I think likelihood of that happening is slim. Why?

Look at the ocean temps. See where the warmest water is? "Gert" if he does form, will naturally follow the warmth. This would keep him far enough off shore to escape any big impact but close enough to really churn up the water and bring high rip currents. I think the models are doing a good job at picking up on this idea as most keep the storm confined to this area.

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What "could" happen? Trough deepens in the west, ridge amplifies over Canada and eastern ridge deepens which could then tug the storm closer to the coast. That's the wild card scenario.

This feature first needs to make it through an area of dry air, if it survives, which it probably will, then we will start keeping a closer eye on it. I typically don't address things that I think have no immediate cause for concern associated with them, but I saw posts LAST WEEK showing direct landfalls on the east coast - VERY premature and VERY irresponsible.

So to recap, no immediate threat but worth watching. We are entering the height of Hurricane season. Basically now through mid September. If ridge over the Atlantic (Bermuda High) stays intact, we've got a better chance of seeing something tropical in nature up the east coast.

As always, I'll keep you updated!

-NorEasterNick