A Look Ahead into The New Month... Warm and Wet or Cool and Dry?Last Edited:
Isn't it amazing to see just how fast time flies? I mean come on! It feels like just yesterday we were celebrating Memorial Day, now we are going back to school shopping. Unreal! Now, I won't be a complete Debbie downer because on the bright side at least we have one full month left of Summer!
Alright, let's get down to brass tacks. Obviously you want to know what we can expect as we go into the new month, right? I'm gonna break it down for you. First, let's take a look back at July. It was one WET month. In fact it was the wettest July since 1945. We picked up over 10 inches of rain, most of it towards the end of the month mind you. Every other year this decade pales in comparison. 10 inches, now that's JUST for ACY (AC Airport) there were certainly areas that picked up MORE than that scattered about South Jersey. Yikes.
Where do we go THIS month? Great question! Temperatures SLOWLY dip... by only 3 degrees. These are AVERAGES and not indicative of what may or may not happen. This is based off 200+ years of weather record keeping. Personally, I don't think it's going to be an overall hot month as we will probably end up somewhere near average give or take a degree.
Here's the NOAA Forecast for Temps this month: I can pretty much get on board with their idea as all information I've seen reflects this. See the big blue blob in the middle of the country? There will be a trough (dip in the jet stream) that tries to set up... this is concerning for tropical reasons because storms are often attracted to these things and can come closer to the mainland US.
Here's where NOAA sees things in terms of Precip: This would tell me there there will be some sort of tropical issues along the Gulf coast. The only disagreement I have with this map? I think we are slightly above average here in South Jersey. I'd extend that green up the coast a little.
My thoughts: The first half of the month is probably cooler than average, we may take a turn by the 15th or so. We aren't done with warm and sticky weather by a long shot. In fact I think it carries well into fall. We need to be mindful of what's going on in the tropics. This time of the year we have to watch water temps and waves coming across the Atlantic. We've seen 5 named tropical systems this year so far, I expect several more. No immediate concern BUT worth keeping an eye out.