Mid-Summer 'Nor'Easter' to Bring Heavy Rain to South Jersey

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Yesterday I compared what's coming our way to forecasting a Winter storm... why? Unanswered questions / twists and turns to the very end. I explained on air that while some of the models are going crazy with 5"+ forecasts, I think we will be in the 2-4" range. Some outlets are showing maps 8" + for some areas, much like with a Winter storm, it is being blown out of proportion. I've always been one to just talk facts, well... here we go:


The majority of today? A whole lotta nothing! I expect showers to break out from west to east with some heavy rain by mid afternoon. The heaviest will arrive tonight and last through early tomorrow morning with it existing sometime tomorrow afternoon.


As stated above, I do NOT see a widespread concern for ridiculous amounts of rain. I DO think there will be isolated 4"+ totals popping up every now and then though. It really depends on where the axis of heavy rain sets up. I think everyone across the board has equal chances, BUT, and that's a big BUT, there WILL be a SHARP cut off line where some get next to nothing (Central and North Jersey) and others get soaked (mainly extreme South Jersey). 2-4" is definitely achievable, more so in Cumberland, Southern Atlantic and Cape May due to current modeled trajectory of low pressure center.


Not an issue today. As the storm intensifies, the winds will pick up. This will occur EARLY Saturday morning and be an issue primarily for the coast line. 40mph + gusts likely through the day on Saturday with things winding down the later we go on through the evening as the storm wraps up and departs. Winds will be out of the northeast and then eventually north-north-east. Mainland gusts could exceed 25mph, not too big an issue for you guys.

Coastal Concerns:

As I outlined yesterday, I'm not too worried about issues for the islands. Why? Well... it's not a very strong storm first off, secondly while the winds will howl and there IS a small threat of MINOR tidal flooding, the worst of this storm arrives during LOW tide. The storm surge is only modeled at about a foot at the height of the strongest winds. We'd need about 2 feet to really amount to anything worth talking about.

STAY OUT OF THE WATER... We could see some 7-10 foot breakers at the beaches. Rip tide chance will be HIGH.

Flash Flooding:

This one is the obvious. We've picked up 4"+ this month. That number is from where our records are kept at the ACY airport. There have been areas that have obviously seen MUCH more than that. It's been a WET month. The ground is saturated. If we get cells to "train" over a particular area there will be flooding. Poor drainage will lead to most of it.

In Summary:

Most of today is dry, rain develops afternoon / evening. Heaviest is overnight into early Saturday. 1-2" possible in places like Camden, Gloucester, Burlington and Ocean counties with 2-4" for the extreme southern portions of the viewing area. Looks like skies could actually try to clear for Sunday.

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