Mayday, Mayday Earth to Mother Nature "Make Up Your Mind!"Last Edited:
Hey friends, it's been awhile. I apologize for my infrequent posts to my weather blog. I've been so tied up with both work and non-work related things I've neglected this board for too long. I'm back and this time I'm not going anywhere. I hope everyone out there is doing well and enjoying our weather this Spring so far.
Well... Happy May everyone!! Wow... isn't it amazing just how fast time flies on by? The last time we touched base, I was talking about the potential for a Winter storm, now we are looking ahead to what mid-Spring will bring us. Craziness! Alright, so how'd we do for April? It was hands down the WARMEST since 2012. Here's a look at how we fared: The majority of the month was spent in the 60s. Half the month. 15 days. The rest of April was evenly split between the 50's and 70s. We had 2 days in the 80s and the hottest day of the year (91) occurred on Saturday. We averaged 5 degrees above the norm. Lots of warmth available this month. So... that begs the question: Where do we go? Does the abnormal warm weather remain?
For that answer we have to take a look at what's going on about 18k feet upstairs. We look at upper air patterns and what the jet stream is doing. What you see right here is called a 500mb height anomaly. What's it mean? I'm not going to bore you with the scientific mumbo jumbo, but I will tell you the warm colors mean the atmospheric thickness is higher than average, which more often than not indicates WARMER air due to HIGH PRESSURE setting in. See where the red is TODAY? Over the east. However, see that blue to the west? That is a system that will be moving in and allowing a trough (dip in the jet stream) to dig in.
Here's how things progress going into the end of next week:
All the blue in the east means cooler air will be with us. It will probably remain that way through the end of the second week of the month. Now, we aren't talking COLD weather, but temps could dip slightly below average for a period of time.
Why is this happening? The simple answer is blocking. We take a look at one of the atmospheric oscillations to give us a hint, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) or more commonly known as the "Greenland Block". THIS right here is the kind of pattern you want in the WINTER... not Spring. High pressure sets up over Greenland and pushes cooler air into the eastern portion of the US. It's unfortunate, but does happen during the Spring month's from time to time. Now, a negative NAO isn't very sustainable, so I don't see it lasting more than a couple weeks at best. So, don't worry... your Spring won't be ruined!
Here's my May 2017 Outlook... Drum roll Please....
I think Summer-like weather comes rolling in towards the end of the month and we just get hotter and hotter and hotter... What do YOU think?